If there's one thing I'm convinced the betting public in Hong Kong does not consider when the millions start flowing in on the tote board, it's pace.
And it's not as if the information is unheard of — the Jockey Club routinely publishes pace projections on their own website for every card. While I don't know how they calculate theirs, I do know how we calculate ours here at the Hong Kong Speed Report. And I think ours is better.
A worked example: Race 5 at Sha Tin, 13 June 2026
A six-furlong sprint (1,200m) on the All Weather Track. Straight away, the history tells us something worth knowing.
Over 53% of winners at this surface and distance come from the front end — a run style during the race of either LEADER, FRONT_RUNNER or EARLY_PRESSER. That means the horse was either leading or, at most, around two lengths behind the leader at the first call. Ignore this at your own peril!
So how did the HKSR Pace Projector lay this race out?
Two horses projected to be on the lead: #2 PEJIBAYE and #7 MEGA CAPTAIN.
Mega Captain also landed top jockey Zac Purton aboard, and had successfully closed into a soft pace the last time he was on the synthetic.
Sure enough — 7 over 2 was your exacta, paying over $72 for a $1.30 wager.
What's the takeaway?
Sometimes pace tells the entire story. It isn't the only part of the equation, but leaving it out is at your own peril — especially over six furlongs, where there simply isn't enough race left to make up ground on horses who got the run of it.
See the Pace Projector on a live card
Every HKSR report includes the Pace Projector, run-style profiles and barrier win rates for the exact course and distance. The free samples are a complete Hong Kong card, unedited.