Field guide

How To Read the HKSR

A practical walkthrough of every tool inside the Hong Kong Speed Report — from pace forecasting and speed ratings to jockey data and horse angles. Start here, then build your own approach.

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1 · Pace 2 · Speed 3 · Trends 4 · Jockeys 5 · The Data 6 · Philosophy Glossary
01
Where it all starts

It All Starts With Pace

One of the major selling points for the HKSR is our multiple ways we feature pace analysis. On each race tab, we start with the HKSR Pace Forecaster — using our "EP" (Early Pace) averages — to give you an idea of how the first couple of sections will play out and who we expect to be on the lead.

HKSR Pace Forecaster for Race 5 showing projected early positions with no pace flag
The Pace Forecaster — Race 5, 6/10/26 (No Pace Flag)

Many times the forecaster will read "No Pace Flag," which means we expect the race to play out at a standard — or sometimes slower than usual — pace. Other times, we'll flag races where we expect a HOT/FAST pace, signaling that horses with strong off-pace tendencies could benefit.

HKSR Pace Forecaster for Race 9 showing a hot pace flag with proven closers
Hot pace flagged — Race 9, 6/10/26
Race 9 · Happy Valley · 6/10/26

A hot pace was set by #3 Northern Fire Ball, who went very quick early and set the race up perfectly for three horses just behind — #11 Target Audience, #4 Motor, and #1 Flying Wrote — who made up the top three finishers. Flying Wrote and Motor both appeared in the HKSR's top three strongest Late Kick rankings for the race.

The Pace Forecaster also flags the horses with the three strongest and weakest "Late Kick" figures — a horse's relative pace in the final section of the race. This is where pace type really matters: the shorter the race, the more early pace dominates; the longer the race, the more important late kick becomes.

We also use the HKSR Summary Tab to show the most common run style for every horse in a given race at a glance.

The RUN_STYLE column on the HKSR summary tab showing each horse's most common run style
The Summary Tab's RUN_STYLE column — every horse's style at a glance

Having a clear opinion about the pace of a race is critical to forming wagers — especially when considering Omni/Exacta/Quinella combinations.

02
The simplest edge

Speed Is King

Sometimes, it's best not to overcomplicate things: horses that run faster than other horses tend to win races. HKSR's custom speed ratings factor in numerous variables — class, going, distance — to give you an edge over the general public.

On the Summary Tab, horses for each race are ordered highest to lowest by their average speed rating over their last three races.

HKSR summary tab for Race 3 with horses ordered by average speed rating
Summary Tab — Race 3, 6/10/26, ordered by AVG_L3 speed rating
Real result · Race 3 · Happy Valley · 6/10/26

The second and third fastest horses by average speed rating ended up being the runner-up and winner — an Exacta that paid 150-to-1.

Official Race 3 results showing the 8-11 exacta paying $306.60
The Race 3 result: $2 Exacta (8-11) paid $306.60

The HKSR Trendlines® Report gives you, in one simple image, a snapshot of every horse's last six races plotted on a single graph. The higher a horse plots, the better their combined speed and pace score. Trendlines® uses a statistical regression model to highlight which horses are trending upward — and which are trending downward.

We highlight up to the top three highest and lowest trending horses in every race. They will often surface horses you may not have otherwise considered.

Trendlines® · 6/10/26 meet card

Horses appearing in the Top 3 Improving Trends box won 7 out of 9 races on the card, including all three in Race 3 — making up a Trifecta that paid 1,100-to-1.

7/9
Races won by Top 3 Trending
1,100×
Race 3 Trifecta payout
150×
Race 3 Exacta payout
04
The pilot matters

Jockey Data

Use the JockeyData tab to get a quick read on how each jockey has been performing over the current meet and over the last six months. Course-split win rates can reveal specialists you'd otherwise miss.

Here's a snapshot of what you can gather in a single glance for June 2026:

JockeySha Tin Win%Happy Valley Win%Note
Matthew Chadwick~0.7%1 for 150 at Sha Tin
Angus Chung3.4%13.4%Strong HV specialist
Joao Moreira11.4%22.6%53 starts; HV dominance
James Orman9.1%5.7%Sha Tin specialist

These splits can dramatically change how you assess a contender. A horse with a mediocre overall jockey record can look very different when you filter for the right course.

05
Going deeper

Analyze the Data

For a given race, there's a wealth of information in both the inline Past Performances and the career record tables. Here's what's available and where to find it.

Right side of each race tab — Career Record Table: a horse's win and place record for relevant conditions in today's race: distance, class, year-to-date, with today's jockey, carrying weight, and more.

A horse's career record table showing win and place percentages by situation
The Career Record Table: win/place splits for today's exact conditions

Left and center of the race tab — Blue Horse Row: each horse's program number, barrier draw, Early and Late Pace ratings, Speed Rating trend, and most common run style.

A blue horse header row with draw, pace ratings, speed trend, and run style
The Blue Horse Row: draw, pace ratings, speed trend, and run style in one line

Underneath each horse's blue row, you'll find Horse Angles — win percentages and ROI rates for past horses who met the same criteria.

Example · Motor · 6/10/26

Motor's last few races triggered the "Hot Horse" and "JockeyTrainer" angle combo — a horse who won his last race, placed in his last three, and teams with a jockey where the trainer has a 10%+ win rate. Motor finished third, a nose out of second.

A horse's blue header row with its purple angle row beneath
A blue horse row with its purple Horse Angles row beneath

Green highlighted rows show trainer data — win rates and ROI for relevant conditions in today's race, plus their success rate with today's jockey. Trainer angles include:

Today's distance
Surface switches
Today's jockey + class
Jump or drop in class
Horse won last race
Jockey switch up or down
A green trainer data row showing jockey/trainer stats and trainer angles with ROI
The green trainer row: J/T record and backtested trainer angles

Past Performances: up to a horse's last six races, including race date, track, surface, jockey, barrier draw, finishing position, speed rating, pace rating, and individual pace metrics for early, middle, and late sections.

Additional helper columns include:

Pace Flow — Hot, Cold, or blank for Neutral
Key Race — 2nd & 3rd place horses went on to perform well in their next start
Closer Switch — horse passed multiple rivals late to finish top 3
Run Style — the horse's pace position in that specific race
A full past performance block for one horse with speed figures and pace metrics
A full Past Performance block: six races of figures, pace metrics, and helper columns
06
The bottom line

Don't Overthink It

There's a lot of data available within the Hong Kong Speed Report. It can be easy to get lost in it and overthink what you should be doing. Like anything else in horse handicapping, it's best to use the data in the way that you find most valuable.

Some players will build their entire approach around pace flow and run style matchups. Others will lean on Trendlines® to find improving horses at value prices. Others will stick to top speed figures and let the numbers lead. All of these are valid starting points.

The HKSR is designed to give you multiple angles of attack — the goal is to find the approach that fits your style, sharpen it with the data, and stay consistent.

One more thing

If you have questions about any section of the report, or you want to talk through how to apply the data to a specific race, reach out at contact@hongkongspeed.com. We're here to help you get the most out of every card.

Glossary

Speak fluent HKSR

Speed Figure (Speed_Fig)HKSR's core performance number for a start — adjusted for track condition, daily variant, weight, and pace. Higher is faster.
Speed ParThe typical winning figure for today's class and distance. The benchmark every runner is measured against.
EP / MP / LP / LKThe four pace segments: Early Pace, Mid Pace, Late Pace, and Late Kick — how the horse's energy was distributed through the race.
Pace RatingA combined rating of the horse's pace profile for a start, built from the four segments.
Run StyleThe horse's typical tactical position: Front Runner / Leader, Early Presser, Midpack, Off Pace, or Closer.
Speed TrendThe direction of a horse's recent figures — positive means improving, negative declining.
Pace Flow (Hot / Cold)The race-shape verdict: a Hot pace burns the front and favors closers; a Cold pace lets the leaders control it.
Late Kick (LK)A horse's relative pace in the final section. The longer the race, the more it matters.
PowerPicksHKSR's top three selections for a race, ranked 1st through 3rd.
Power PlaysThe card-level summary listing the top horse per race in four categories: average speed, speed trend, distance/surface figures, and pace rating.
AngleA backtested wagering scenario (trainer-based or horse-based) with published starts, win%, and ROI.
$2 ROIThe theoretical return on a flat $2 win bet on every qualifier of an angle. Above $2.00 is profitable.
ITM%In-the-money percentage — how often a horse or combo finishes 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
J/T ComboThe jockey/trainer pairing's record together — starts, win%, and ITM%.
Draw / BarrierThe starting gate position. HKSR's barrier analysis shows win rates by barrier group and run style for the exact course and distance.
Key RaceA race whose 2nd and 3rd place finishers went on to perform well next start — form worth following.
Closer SwitchFlags a horse that passed multiple rivals late to finish in the top 3.
AVG_L3 / BL5Average speed rating over the last three starts / best rating in the last five — the Summary Tab's ranking numbers.
Speed Trend ProjectorThe Pace Report model estimating the probability a horse posts a New Top, Holds (Peak), Holds (Par), or Regresses today.
Daily VariantThe day-specific track speed adjustment applied to raw times so figures are comparable across meetings.

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