Look, there's no doubt for the last several years who the top dog has been at Sha Tin and Happy Valley — especially Sha Tin — and that's Australia's own Zac Purton.
He routinely racks up as many wins as the next top three jockeys combined in Hong Kong, holds a near 20% overall win rate, and almost always gives a major chance for a speed rating upgrade on whatever horse he rides.
Many bettors will flock to Zac Purton and assume the horse is live every single race. That's understandable, but it's a poor way to analyse any given race.
Why? Setting aside the obvious fact that jockey ability and race riding is simply one variable — an important one, but one of many — there's also this: not every trainer who gives Zac Purton mounts has the same historical success with him. See below for a sample of the last two and a half years or so.
Show the full numbers
| Trainer | Mounts | Wins | Win % | Places | ITM % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum 40 mounts | |||||
| K W Lui | 112 | 36 | 32.1% | 33 | 61.6% |
| C S Shum | 115 | 33 | 28.7% | 23 | 48.7% |
| P F Yiu | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 15 | 56.6% |
| C H Yip | 67 | 18 | 26.9% | 9 | 40.3% |
| D Eustace | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 10 | 44.7% |
| K L Man | 91 | 21 | 23.1% | 31 | 57.1% |
| D A Hayes | 207 | 47 | 22.7% | 55 | 49.3% |
| M Newnham | 75 | 16 | 21.3% | 19 | 46.7% |
| J Richards | 137 | 29 | 21.2% | 34 | 46.0% |
| F C Lor | 134 | 27 | 20.1% | 32 | 44.0% |
| J Size | 189 | 35 | 18.5% | 60 | 50.3% |
| P C Ng | 160 | 29 | 18.1% | 40 | 43.1% |
| D J Whyte | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 18 | 61.0% |
| W Y So | 97 | 16 | 16.5% | 30 | 47.4% |
| D J Hall | 128 | 20 | 15.6% | 35 | 43.0% |
| A S Cruz | 99 | 14 | 14.1% | 28 | 42.4% |
| T P Yung | 54 | 7 | 13.0% | 18 | 46.3% |
| W K Mo | 41 | 3 | 7.3% | 16 | 46.3% |
| Below 40 mounts — not interpretable | |||||
| C W Chang | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | 9 | 40.7% |
| K H Ting | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | 4 | 59.1% |
| B Crawford | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 47.1% |
| Y S Tsui | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 12.5% |
| C Fownes | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 50.0% |
| S Marsh | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| All trainers | 1,924 | 396 | 20.6% | 528 | 48.0% |
Woof! There's a big difference between a 15% win rate with D J Hall and a whopping 32% win rate with K W Lui.
Let's look at a jockey further down the standings
We may be using Zac Purton as our example here, but why not take a look at a couple of other jockeys? Here's Angus Chung (Y L Chung):
Show the full numbers
| Trainer | Mounts | Wins | Win % | Places | ITM % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum 40 mounts | |||||
| P C Ng | 86 | 7 | 8.1% | 10 | 19.8% |
| Y S Tsui | 108 | 8 | 7.4% | 19 | 25.0% |
| A S Cruz | 705 | 49 | 7.0% | 95 | 20.4% |
| C H Yip | 101 | 6 | 5.9% | 10 | 15.8% |
| C S Shum | 77 | 4 | 5.2% | 10 | 18.2% |
| F C Lor | 44 | 2 | 4.5% | 5 | 15.9% |
| K L Man | 47 | 2 | 4.3% | 4 | 12.8% |
| W K Mo | 44 | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 11.4% |
| Below 40 mounts — not interpretable | |||||
| K H Ting | 37 | 3 | 8.1% | 3 | 16.2% |
| J Richards | 36 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 8.3% |
| D J Whyte | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | 5 | 30.4% |
| C W Chang | 23 | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 21.7% |
| P F Yiu | 21 | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 14.3% |
| K W Lui | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 2 | 20.0% |
| M Newnham | 17 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 5.9% |
| D Eustace | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 17.6% |
| T P Yung | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 8.3% |
| W Y So | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 12.5% |
| D A Hayes | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| B Crawford | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| C Fownes | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| D J Hall | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| J Size | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| All trainers | 1,444 | 89 | 6.2% | 181 | 18.7% |
Angus Chung wins at a modest rate in Hong Kong, and nearly half of all his mounts come from a single trainer, A S Cruz. This is not shocking in and of itself; trainers regularly have their go-to guys and Chung is no exception.
Now dig into the run styles
Let's go deeper into the run styles of the horses in their given races where Chung has ridden them for A S Cruz:
Show the full numbers
| Run style | Mounts | Wins | Win % | Places | ITM % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On the pace | |||||
| Leader | 116 | 17 | 14.7% | 26 | 37.1% |
| Front runner | 57 | 10 | 17.5% | 9 | 33.3% |
| Early presser | 87 | 10 | 11.5% | 15 | 28.7% |
| On the pace — total | 260 | 37 | 14.2% | 50 | 33.5% |
| Off the pace | |||||
| Midpack | 130 | 2 | 1.5% | 17 | 14.6% |
| Off pace | 154 | 6 | 3.9% | 15 | 13.6% |
| Closer | 144 | 3 | 2.1% | 12 | 10.4% |
| Off the pace — total | 428 | 11 | 2.6% | 44 | 12.8% |
| Unclassified | |||||
| No run style recorded | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 1 | 11.8% |
| All A S Cruz mounts | 705 | 49 | 7.0% | 95 | 20.4% |
As we see in this chart, even for Chung, not all A S Cruz horses are created equal. Horses with an established run style of OFF_PACE or CLOSER or even MIDPACK have a decidedly lower win rate when Chung and Cruz pair up, compared to the horses he gets aggressively to the lead or close to the pace.
Again: none of this is shocking information, but it is indicative yet again of how pace is sometimes not factored in at Hong Kong. If Angus Chung is riding a horse for A S Cruz whose run style in his last four races has been CLOSER, CLOSER, OFF_PACE, CLOSER — well, you can see what your historic win rate is there.
Something to think about!
Every jockey, every trainer, every card
The Hong Kong Speed Report carries jockey/trainer strike rates, run-style history and pace projections for every runner on the card — so you can check the combination before you back it, not after. The free samples are a complete card, unedited.